Tuesday, 8 May 2012
Why do people put so much stock in weather forecasting?
The wet weather did eventually make me grumble as my May Day plans of going to the Greenman Festival in Clun got cancelled due to the sustained rain turning the events field marshy & the level of the river Clun was dangerously high which is seems almost strange as it never really seems a deep river but hey ho nature is unpredictable at best. So why do we do weather forecasts? We only complain when they get it wrong, its sunny when it is supposed to rain, its howling a gale when there is meant to be a gentle breeze etc. Many people take what they say as truth rather than pattern reading & prediction & then they scoff at fortune telling saying it is all a load of hooey ignoring the fact that is what weather forecasting is. The term forecast is used in fortune telling too & they they use the word predicted a lot. So why is weather forecasting taken with less of a pinch of salt? There are computers that work it out yes, but computers can only deal with probabilities of data, fortune tellers on the other hand tend read a person's body language when they go to see them & can pretty much tell what is going on before the person has sat down, like it or not fortune tellers use psychology to help them predict patterns in a person's life, though I dare say many fortune tellers don't even realise they are doing it & think they have a mystical talent beyond all measure, people who are good at fortune telling are observant & will have noted in their brain certain patterns of behaviour which will also indicate how the person would normally act, the oracle that a fortune teller uses is a focus & as a prompt for things missed though sometimes the oracle will show up something entirely different but the reactions would be fairly similar. So if reading patterns & observing data & then making a prediction on what is seen is not for you take no notice to the weather forecast & pack for every eventuality of weather. I tend to do that anyway mainly because I forget to empty my bag & then wonder where either my waterproofs or sunscreen are when I'm panicking in a mad rush to leave the house on time, or is that just being forgetfully organised?